Giga Texas location correction ….. AAA screws up ….. More ignorance from Audi’s CEO ….. China’s proposed in-car air regulation ….. Jaguar Land Rover’s love for hydrogen fuel cells …. What’s different about the European car market
In a previous blog, I stated that Tesla’s new Texas plant was going to be located in the northeast segment of their property, above Harold Green Road. I was wrong, as Joe Tegtmeyer proved to me. The main Phase One Tesla plant is being built in the southeast parcel of land, right where Joe’s excellent videos show all the frenzied activity and rapid progress. This portion of the land is about 280 acres, plenty sufficient for Tesla’s Phase One effort. Catch Joe’s latest daily Giga Texas update here.
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In a classic example of how the Detroit automotive press and other US auto-focused organizations send out incomplete or pejorative information designed to cast doubt or disinformation on electric vehicles in general or regarding Tesla and its vehicles, the August 6, 2020 issue of Automotive News had an article with a large headline in bold entitled: “Modern driver-assistance technology ‘far from reliable,’ AAA study says”. Shame on Automotive News for parroting this tripe. The AAA study said advanced driver assistance technology is “not providing reliable safety benefits……are far from reliable”. The five cars they tested were a 2019 BMW X7, a 2019 Cadillac CT6, a 2019 Ford Edge, a 2020 Kia Telluride, and a 2020 Subaru Outback, each equipped with its manufacturer’s latest driver assistance technology.
Note that although Tesla has over three billion miles of driving under its Autopilot, there were no Tesla’s tested. Apparently the AAA never read any of Tesla’s quarterly safety reports, from which I quoted their Q4, 2019 findings here. It’s like the AAA doesn’t even know Tesla exists!
By the end of this year Tesla will have about four billion miles of its customers driving over a million Teslas using its Autopilot system under every probable driving condition and, of course, has precise statistics on all safety-related disengagements. One of the Tesla features most liked by Tesla owners is Autopilot. Most owners who use Autopilot say it significantly increases their safety and decreases the stress of driving. Indeed, Tesla’s Autopilot has saved many owners from accidents and injury as its quarterly safety reports and camera records show.
It is obvious that competing car brands’ driver assistance software does not work as well as Tesla’s. However, for the AAA and Automotive News to publicize this AAA study without even acknowledging Tesla or its Autopilot safety record is totally irresponsible journalism.
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In yet another example of a German auto executive’s recto-cranial insertion, a July 9, 2020 Teslarati article quotes Audi CEO Markus Duesmann as saying: “I don’t see honestly Tesla to be ahead with Lithium-Ion Technology ….. with batteries I definitely don’t see them as leading.” It’s interesting that Duesmann’s remarks are in direct contrast to those of his boss Herbert Diess, CEO of VW Group, as I have noted in a previous blogs here and here. They also fly in the face of virtually every other auto industry executive, analyst, and pundit, who all admit to Tesla having a two to ten year battery technology and management system lead on all traditional auto industry competitors. Indeed, a recent Forbes article contained a quote from an engineering executive at a major Japanese auto company who said: “…we cannot do it [catch up to Tesla].”
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A recent Automotive News Europe article reports that China is considering in-car air quality regulations that are far more stringent than the normal (if so equipped) cabin air filters found on many cars. Given the off-the-charts levels of air pollution in China, this makes a good deal of sense. Considering the COVID-19 pandemic, this idea could and should be extended to automotive regulations globally. Note that Tesla is already ahead of the Chinese with this feature, at least in its Models S and X. Check out this video explanation by Elon, announced in 2015! Of course, one can’t just replace today’s standard cabin air filter with a HEPA filter. The entire system must be redesigned so that a more powerful fan can flow the same amount of air through a much more restrictive filter. (The same principle applies when implementing a home filter HEPA conversion.) In-car HEPA filters are a win-win for every vehicle driver and passenger.
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It seems as if the German auto industry senior management syndrome that strikes their top executives, the aforementioned recto-cranial insertion, is making its way in a virus-like manner to the executives of Jaguar Land Rover. A recent article in Green Car reports quoted JLR’s continuing work and dreams of hydrogen fuel cell-driven cars. JLR’s Executive Director of Product Engineering Nick Rogers is quoted as saying: “In some of the [our] bigger vehicles [SUVs] we’re [seeing] diminishing returns, in terms of the amount of energy you can store in a battery for the weight of the car….. you’re making the cars so much heavier, that you’re then using so much of that energy just to cart the heavy weight about…..And so the opportunity with hydrogen, where you skinny it down and effectively replace the internal combustion engine with a hydrogen machine that creates energy…….”
Note that this battery weight problem is precisely the lesson VW has learned to their embarrassment where with their new ID.3’s 77 kWh battery option weighs more than the car is allowed to with five occupants under German law. On top of that its 0 to 60 mph time is slower than an ID.3 with the 58 kWh battery!
Alas JLR, the answer is not a hydrogen fuel with its added cost, maintenance issues, and limited refueling opportunities. Have you not heard, JLR, that the battery cost curve has been (and continues to) decreasing about 18% a year while battery performance increases some five percent or more a year – at least with Tesla products. Have you not heard about Tesla’s forthcoming Battery Day on September 22, 2020 where they will likely announce further improvements in battery technology and manufacturing processes that leapfrog all current competitors’ battery performance once again?
The answer, JLR, is to get the weight out of your vehicles and pursue efficiency gains in your inverters and electric drive units, improve your battery management systems, and buy or develop better battery technology. As Tony Seba pointed out in his 2014 book Clean Disruption, you simply cannot win with fuel cells. They only add cost and complexity. Could JLR’s continued pursuit of hydrogen fuel cells mean that JLR was late to the battery supply challenge and cannot purchase a sufficient volume of batteries for its EV production plans? Hmmm…..
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The car market in Europe is radically different than that of the US and many other countries. Due to tax laws and corporate compensation customs, some 57% to 60% of European car sales are made to companies – either for fleet use or to provide to employees for their personal use, at a significant discount or even for free as a perk of their jobs. As with the management structure, so goes the car. Higher level executives get larger higher level autos, lower level employees get smaller less expensive cars.
Currently, Teslas (and other brands of electric vehicles) are an option for employees at very few European companies. This will change for the following four reasons. Foremost among these is European countries’ significant incentive programs to purchase or lease zero emission vehicles. Second, European car companies are beginning to produce larger and more luxurious electric vehicles – the Audi e-Tron being a notable example of this. Third, Tesla’s Giga Berlin factory will start pushing out Model Ys and 3s by the Spring of 2021. Finally, effective auto fleet management practices emphasize that companies focus on lowest total cost of ownershipwhen evaluating new car purchases. This will greatly benefit the sale of electric vehicles, especially the longer the company keeps their fleet and executive cars.
Tesla’s Model 3 has already wreaked havoc on the smaller sized German car sales in the US and Europe. All signs are that Tesla’s Models Y and 3 will grab a huge chunk of the European market once Giga Berlin gets rolling. Gee, that’s what Tesla’s cars are already doing in China too. Gosh, Tesla has some 80% of the electric vehicle market in the US. I guess Tesla must be doing something right! Roll on, Elon……….
PS: Tesla’s stock price has risen from $443.01 on January 3rd, 2020, to $2001.83 at the close on August 20th, 2020, a gain of 352%! It will likely go higher tomorrow as last minute buyers rush in to obtain the stock split. Holders of record of Tesla stock as of tomorrow night August 21st will receive a 5:1 stock split to be reflected in trading as of August 31st! Whoopee!
PPS: Don’t sell – Tesla stock will keep on climbing.
Image courtesy of Pixabay
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