Cybertrucks:
I was watching the excellent Tailosive EV YouTube video channel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXXBtYIK5Rw and Drew’s thoughts on his video about the future of Tesla’s Cybertruck perfectly mirrored mine. Readers here might want to be sure they have read my first blog Tesla’s Cybertruck https://evtransportnews.com/teslas-cybertruck-an-untapped-gold-mine/ and then a more recent one Cybertruck Plant a No-Brainer for Texas https://evtransportnews.com/cybertruck-plant-a-no-brainer-for-texas/ about the best place for Tesla’s Cybertruck manufacturing plant will be right here in the Austin, TX area. What we all know is that with over 650,000 Cybertruck orders booked, Elon better pick a manufacturing location soon and set another record for facility construction so that Cybertruck production can start yesterday. The world really wants this vehicle. What manufacturer wouldn’t like to start with over a two-year production backlog on just one model vehicle?
But the current Cybertruck design can be just the start of something far bigger for Tesla. Picture a Tesla Truck Division (TTD). One half of this new Tesla Division (“Tesla Big Truck Company” or TBTC) could be dedicated to Semi tractor trucks and the slightly smaller straight delivery truck Tesla showed at the Semi’s unveiling. This smaller truck is an urban delivery truck similar to current 20 to 26 foot box or platform trucks.
The second half of TTD could be the Tesla Cybertruck Company (TCC), dedicated to the current Cybertruck design vehicle and all its potential derivatives. With the Cybertruck, Musk and Tesla have created an entire new class of vehicle – unlike any other traditional pickup truck or vehicle on the market. It’s similar to when Lee Iacocca brought out the minivan at Chrysler in 1984, or when Alec Issigonis designed the original Austin Seven and Morris Mini-Minor “Mini” that came out in the UK in 1959.
Picture a full line-up of TCC vehicles in addition to the current Cybertruck design – the Cyber Station Wagon (or SUV), the Cyber Small Delivery Van, the Cyber Large work/Delivery Van, the Cyber Police Vehicle, the Cyber Ambulance, the Cyber Military Vehicle, the Cyber Border Patrol Vehicle, the Cyber Limousine, the Cyber Robotaxi, and yes, maybe even a Cyber Hearse! The market opportunities for this innovative design, and equally important it’s many features that are not found in conventional pickups are virtually unlimited. Imagine too, the unlimited opportunities for this vehicle and its derivatives in many other parts of the world – Africa, Latin and South America, Australia, India, and the Middle East.
As with all things Tesla, the world is full of unlimited and to this date largely uncontested opportunities. Stay tuned…….
Solar Power:
CleanTechnica’s Johnna Crider had a revealing article https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/06/abu-dhabi-will-have-the-cheapest-solar-farm-ever-built/ on solar power prices. In the United Arab Emirates – itself an oil and gas rich country – its capital city of Abu Dhabi just announced a solar power contract where they will buy power from a nearby world’s largest (and being expanded for this contract) solar land farm for $0.0135 per kWh! That’s no typo! Sure, it’s the desert with lots of sun. But at that price electric power is essentially free! In contrast, the average US homeowner pays about $0.13 per kWh in addition to often usurious “peak demand” rates that may double that base rate. Tony Seba continues to be correct more often than not – in the near future, energy will be abundant and “free”. See Seba’s www.rethinkx.com.
Volvo’s Autonomous Driving Capability – Don’t Hold Your Breath!
An Auto News Europe article https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/volvo-luminar-team-deliver-autonomous-highway-driving publicized a tie up between Volvo and the US hi-tech company Luminar that would enable Volvos to offer fully autonomous driving starting in 2022. This was a great headline grabber, but the article is loaded with qualifiers such as “’hardware-ready’ for autonomous drive”. What does that mean? And how good is the Zenuity Z2 software they will be using, arguably the very hardest part of developing fully autonomous driving? Just ask the Germans. 2022 is already a bit late, it seems.
Volvo is going to be really conservative about where (i.e., specific highways) in Sweden they will allow such autonomous capability to first be used. The article also reported that Lidar systems are “essential” to safe autonomous vehicles. I know Tesla and most Tesla owners would disagree with that notion. And it’s well known that Elon Musk has stated many times that Lidar will not work for autonomous driving.
The most interesting line in the article was the following: “Green [Volvo’s Chief Technology Officer] confirmed that when the [Volvo’s autonomous driving] system is turned on Volvo will take [legal] liability for the car.” I expect that liability transfer will become commonplace throughout the autonomous driving vehicle world. This will shift a considerable part of an owner’s insurance burden to the vehicle’s manufacturer, thus lowering the owner’s insurance cost significantly. Note that Tesla knows exactly when one of its car’s drivers are using Autopilot and eventually Full Self Driving, and as a result knows exactly what percentage of the owner’s driving is on those systems. Consequently, Tesla can prorate the vehicle insurance they sell the owner accordingly.
My suspicion is that a robust and safe Volvo autonomous driving system is several years away, while Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self Driving capability continues to improve daily.
What’s Up Intel?
There may be a sleeper in the autonomous driving field, namely Intel Corporation. Today’s autonomous driving systems, or the systems closest to that goal, are based on either Tesla’s proprietary FSD computer chips or Nvidia’s “Drive AGX Xavier” system on a chip used by Chinese automaker Xpeng. But Intel has been shopping lately in Israel, acquiring Mobileye in 2017, and just recently Moovit, as reported in this Automotive News article https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/intel-buys-moovit-transit-app-900m-help-develop-robotaxis. Mobileye is a developer of autonomous vehicle capability, while Moovit develops public transit applications that help people find the best way to where they want to go. Intel hopes to combine the best of these two worlds with its chipmaking capability to compete effectively in the Robotaxi business. Don’t sell the Israelis short — they have some of the best and most advanced technologies in the world as well as world-class scientists and engineers. Intel is looking for new markets lately and this may be a viable one for them. The jury is out on this one.
Electric Boats Now – – Really?
IDTechEX reports in a recent article by Luke Gear https://www.idtechex.com/en/research-article/the-challenges-ahead-for-electric-leisure-boating/20589 about the electric boat market, dominated by one manufacturer – Torqeedo, based in Gilchin, Germany, near Munich. Torqeedo, a division of DUETZ AG, produces a full line of electric inboard and outboard-driven boats including fishing boats. In a boating market that sells only about 500,000 boats in a good year, Torqeedo has sold over 100,000 electric-powered boats. The curious thing about this boating market is that the industry’s major outboard engine manufacturers – Honda, Mercury, and Yamaha — aren’t even in the game to date. I guess their collective thinking is: why invest in something new when you already have a cash cow working?
If more lakeside cabin owners’ associations and environmentalists in the US knew about the availability of quiet electric boats, I am sure they would quickly work together to pass laws that phased out over five years or so the use of any ICE-powered boat on freshwater lakes. No more excessive noise, no more gasoline or two-stroke smell, and no more oil in the water. What’s not to like about that? Torqeedo has several US locations. See www.torqeedo.com Carry on, Torqeedo! Faster!
Tesla and Teleconferencing: What next for Tesla?
In a recent CleanTechnica article again by Johnna Crider https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/05/elon-musk-says-video-conferencing-within-a-tesla-is-a-future-feature/, Elon Musk, never at a loss for new features and benefits to add to Tesla products, in reply to a May 5th, 2020 Tesla Owners Silicon Valley tweet stated that video conferencing was “definitely a future feature”, presumably to be added to Tesla vehicles via an over-the-air (OTA) update. For today’s cars, Tesla may limit this feature to when a vehicle is parked. However, it would be an essential feature in Robotaxis.
That leads me to question whether one computer screen is sufficient in a Model 3 or Y? Wouldn’t two screens side-by-side and perhaps canted away from each other slightly be a better deal – one for the driver, and the other for passenger use (entertainment, news, or videoconferencing). Furthermore, wouldn’t another screen (or two, perhaps smaller) be useful for back seat passengers, especially in a Robotaxi application? These multiple screens could at least be a Tesla option.
Closing this blog on a high, as I have noted in previous blogs, one of Musk’s most brilliant strategies is to tap the brains of his customers and Twitter followers about what they’d like see in a particular vehicle, or in general. In the tweet cited at the end of CleanTechnica’s article, Musk asks a person (and who knows how many followers?): “What excites you about 2030?”
That is strategic leadership at its best – an open and inquisitive mind that taps the imagination, wishes, and wisdom of millions of customers and followers.
That’s all for now. I have to stop somewhere. There is so much interesting news flooding in that this blog could go on for pages. More to come…….
Image courtesy of Pixabay
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One Response
Wow. Bust time. Thanks for the roundup Tom!